Using Multi-Scale Uncertainty Information And Specific Forecast Skill To Improve Reservoir Operations

Optimization of reservoir operations to time series of forecasted inflows are constrained by a set of multiple objectives that span many time scales, however the temporally evolving skill of the forecasts are usually not considered in the objective functions. For example, a flow forecast time series extending from 1 day to 6 months consists of a medium range flow forecast that draws its skill from initial conditions and weather forecasts and a seasonal flow forecast that relies on the initial conditions only. The skill of the medium range flow forecast is the daily and aggregated values with a range of uncertainties that increases with lead time, while the seasonal flow forecasts only have skill in the monthly volumetric values with a range of uncertainties that is large, but predictable. Unfortunately, the impacts of temporally evolving skill and uncertainty on reservoir operations and operational risk is unknown, which may leave significant room for improvement. To explore this question we conduct a set of optimization experiments of reservoir operations at the snowmelt dominated Gunnison River Basin in Colorado and the snow-rain transition Feather River Basin in California. Each optimization experiment uses the same ensemble flow forecast, which is an ensemble medium range forecast merged with an ensemble seasonal forecast, but utilizes a different set of weights that are applied to the medium and seasonal scale objectives (which are to maximize revenue and envrionmental performance). By comparing the weighted set of optimizations to a non-weighted optimization, we are able to isolate the impact of the skill and uncertainty of the forecasts on reservoir operations. We conclude by using the results to develop a functional relationship between the skill and uncertainty in the forecasts to the objective weights and as a basis to calculate operational risk

Hydropower Scheduling Toolchains:Comparing Experiences in Brazil, Norway,and USA and Implications for Synergistic Research

While hydropower scheduling is a well-defined problem, there are institutional differences that need to be identified to promoteconstructive and synergistic research. We study how established toolchains of computer models are organized to assist operational hydro-power scheduling in Brazil, Norway, and the United States’Colorado River System (CRS). These three systems have vast hydropowerresources, with numerous, geographically widespread, and complex reservoir systems. Although the underlying objective of hydropowerscheduling is essentially the same, the systems are operated in different market contexts and with different alternative uses of water, where thestakeholders’objectives clearly differ. This in turn leads to different approaches when it comes to the scope, organization, and use of modelsfor operational hydropower scheduling and the information flow between the models. We describe these hydropower scheduling toolchains,identify the similarities and differences, and shed light on the original ideas that motivated their creation. We then discuss the need to improveand extend the current toolchains and the opportunities to synergistic research that embrace those contextual differences.Hydropower Scheduling Toolchains:Comparing Experiences in Brazil, Norway,and USA and Implications for Synergistic ResearchacceptedVersio

A 24.25-30.5GHz Fully Integrated SiGe Phase Shifter/VGA/Power Amplifier in 0.13μm BiCMOS Technology for 5G Beamforming Applications

This paper presents a 24.25GHz to 30.5GHz wideband SiGe front-end module including a passive phase shifter (PS), a low impedance and low phase variation variable gain amplifier (VGA) and a linear power amplifier (PA) dedicated to beamforming architectures. The whole chip exhibits 33dB of maximum gain, 24dBm of saturation power (Psat) and 32.5% of maximum Power Added Efficiency (PAEmax) at 27GHz. Phase adjustment covers 360° with a minimum resolution of 5.6° and gain covers a 16dB range by 0.5dB steps. The circuit is implemented in a SiGe 130nm BiCMOS process and occupies 0.53 mm² without pads

Providing modeling tools on extreme events of climate change to Puget Sound managers

As climate change becomes a reality for the management of Puget Sound, water resource and fisheries managers should consider incorporating predictions and outcomes of future climate drivers into their long-range plans and daily operations. Modeling tools that focus on climate impacts and predictions show that extreme events are more often responsible for large impacts than the long-term press of climate change. Working with water resource and fisheries managers in the Dungeness and Skagit watersheds, this project uses outputs of existing climate and estuarine models to define thresholds and metrics associated with extreme climate-driven events that are of importance to the resource managers. Managers from the Dungeness and Skagit basins were brought together to assist with defining information needs for sustainable fish habitat and human water uses. The resource managers participating in the project include municipal waste water treatment operators and planners, fisheries managers, agricultural practitioners and conservation district staff, flood control specialists, and others. The information needs identified by the planners, based on the climate model outputs, include better predictions for low stream flows, stream temperature, extent of salinity intrusion into tidal rivers, and timing of extreme events that fall outside the historical norm. The project is developing a decision-support system to meet these needs. The metrics used to drive the decision-support system are derived from model outputs, driven by resource management needs. The information needs, metrics derived from existing models, and the draft decision-support system will be presented. The research team also seeks to use the project to define improved communication pathways between the scientific community and local managers

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. Power system operators and EV charging stakeholders require such high-resolution load profiles for their planning studies. However, such profiles accounting whole transportation sector is lacking. Thus, we present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multi-sectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions

An essential function of the mitogen‐activated protein kinase Erk2 in mouse trophoblast development

The closely related mitogen-activated protein kinase isoforms extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 (ERK1) and ERK2 have been implicated in the control of cell proliferation, differentiation and survival. However, the specific in vivo functions of the two ERK isoforms remain to be analysed. Here, we show that disruption of the Erk2 locus leads to embryonic lethality early in mouse development after the implantation stage. Erk2 mutant embryos fail to form the ectoplacental cone and extra-embryonic ectoderm, which give rise to mature trophoblast derivatives in the fetus. Analysis of chimeric embryos showed that Erk2 functions in a cell-autonomous manner during the development of extra-embryonic cell lineages. We also found that both Erk2 and Erk1 are widely expressed throughout early-stage embryos. The inability of Erk1 to compensate for Erk2 function suggests a specific function for Erk2 in normal trophoblast development in the mouse, probably in regulating the proliferation of polar trophectoderm cells

Xiphinema index-resistant grapevine materials derived from muscadine are also resistant to a population of X. diversicaudatum

Grapevine is severely affected by two major nepoviruses that cause grapevine degeneration: the grapevine fanleaf virus (GFLV) and the arabis mosaic virus (ArMV), specifically transmitted by the dagger nematodes Xiphinema index and X. diversicaudatum, respectively. While natural resistance to X. index has been shown to be a promising alternative for controlling X. index and GFLV transmission, the resistance interaction between X. diversicaudatum and grapevine has not yet been documented. In the present study, we evaluated the host suitability to X. diversicaudatum in materials previously characterised for their resistance to X. index. Two X. index-resistant accessions VRH8771 (F1 hybrid) and Nemadex Alain Bouquet (BC1 hybrid) derived from muscadine, together with the X. index-susceptible reference accession V. vinifera cv. Cabernet-Sauvignon and the X. index-resistant reference accession V. riparia ‘10128’, were challenged with a X. diversicaudatum population obtained from woody host plants and a reference isolate of X. index. The reproduction factors of X. diversicaudatum and its numbers per gram of roots paralleled those of X. index, showing a resistance interaction to the population of the former species and suggesting that resistance determinants to both nematode vectors might be the same or linked. Nevertheless, these two criteria illustrated a poorer host suitability of grapevine materials to this X. diversicaudatum population than to X. index